Indo-Pacific warm pool present warming attribution and future projection constraint

Abstract The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and expanded substantially over the past decades, which significantly affected hydrological cycle global climate system. It is unclear how IPWP will change in future under anthropogenic (ANT) forcing. Here, we quantify human contribution to observed warming/expansion adjust projected changes using an optimal fingerprinting method based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. We find that more than 95% rapid warming 85% expansion of are detected attributable influence. Furthermore, activities affect through both greenhouse gases ANT aerosols. multiple model ensemble mean can capture trend tends underestimate trend. After observation constraint, increase faster 21st Century, Indian Ocean expand previously expected. rest century impact system life beings.